CS2 CASE ODDS: HOW RARE IS RARE REALLY?
CS2 case opening is one of the most exciting elements of playing Counter-Strike. There’s an undeniable thrill in rolling the dice and seeing what weapon skin you’ll be able to equip next. But opening cases, it’s crucial that players understand CS2 case odds so they’re aware of the chances of drawing the most expensive skins in CS2.
WHAT ARE THE CS2 CASE ODDS?
CS2 guns each have a rarity assigned to them, officially known as ‘Weapon Quality’. These rarities are:
- White (Common) – Consumer Grade, Base Grade.
- Baby Blue (Uncommon) – Industrial Grade.
- Navy Blue (Rare) – Mil-Spec, High Grade.
- Purple (Mythical) – Restricted, Remarkable.
- Hot Pink (Legendary) – Classified, Exotic.
- Red (Ancient) – Covert, Extraordinary.
- Gold (Exceedingly Rare) – Knife, Gloves.
- Rose Gold (Immortal) – Contraband (Discontinued).
However, White and Baby Blue do not appear in CS2 cases, only dropping as rewards after games. These skins can’t teach you how to get better at CS2, but they might look cool for new players starting out. Rose Gold items have also been discontinued, so it’s only the rest that appear as drops in CS2 cases.
But what actually are the CS2 case odds? Due to laws passed by China’s Ministry of Culture, in 2017 Valve was forced to publish the official numbers, giving players an exact idea of how they’re spending their money when they get CS2 cases. These odds were as follows:
- Navy Blue (Rare) – 79.92%
- Purple (Mythical) – 15.98%
- Hot Pink (Legendary) – 3.2%
- Red (Ancient) – 0.64%
- Gold (Exceedingly Rare) – 0.26%
As you can see, the odds of receiving a skin that turns a profit during your CS2 case opening are extremely unlikely. We think we’ll stick to our CS2 free skins. Only the luckiest of players manage to receive a prize such as a knife. If there’s a specific skin you want in-game, it will usually be cheaper to buy than to continue to try your luck through CS2 case openings.
There’s another element to CS2 case odds. With every drop of any Weapon Quality, there is a chance that the gun will be StatTrak, meaning that the weapon will track the number of kills made by the owner. The odds of this are 1 in 10 for any drop. A StatTrak variant of a skin is usually much more expensive than its non-StatTrak variant, as they’re extremely rare to come across on already-rare skins.
It’s not uncommon for crazy skin drops to be front-page CS2 news, even over a decade after release. Now that you know the CS2 case odds, it’s up to you to decide how much you want to chance becoming one of the extremely fortunate few.
CS2 CASE ROI
If you’re an investor, you might want to know the average CS2 case ROI before you open your cases. We’ve worked out the current odds, but it should be said that the CS2 market is always in flux. While these prices are correct right now, if any skins or cases have any sort of massive movement then this could prove to be slightly off.
| CS2 Case Name | Cost of Case | Cost of Key | Average Return on Case | Return on Investment (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $110 | $2.49 | $38 | 33.78% |
| eSports 2013 Case | $50 | $2.49 | $10 | 19.05% |
| Operation Bravo Case | $80 | $2.49 | $18.50 | 22.43% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $12 | $2.49 | $8.20 | 56.59% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $10 | $2.49 | $5.30 | 42.43% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $7 | $2.49 | $4.30 | 45.31% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $9.50 | $2.49 | $6 | 50.04% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $3.20 | $2.49 | $2.60 | 45.69% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | $12 | $2.49 | $6.20 | 42.79% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $7 | $2.49 | $2.50 | 26.34% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $7.50 | $2.49 | $3.70 | 37.04% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $2.50 | $2.49 | $2 | 40.08% |
| Chroma Case | $3 | $2.49 | $2.05 | 37.34% |
| Chroma 2 Case | $2.50 | $2.49 | $1.85 | 37.07% |
| Falchion Case | $1 | $2.49 | $1.60 | 45.85% |
| Shadow Case | $1.10 | $2.49 | $1.70 | 47.35% |
| Revolver Case | $1.90 | $2.49 | $1.70 | 38.72% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $2 | $2.49 | $2.55 | 56.79% |
| Chroma 3 Case | $2.50 | $2.49 | $1.48 | 29.66% |
| Gamma Case | $2.10 | $2.49 | $1.95 | 42.48% |
| Gamma 2 Case | $2.50 | $2.49 | $1.70 | 34.07% |
| Glove Case | $6 | $2.49 | $0.88 | 10.37% |
| Spectrum Case | $2.30 | $2.49 | $1.80 | 37.58% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $22 | $2.49 | $9.20 | 37.57% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | $1.60 | $2.49 | $1.20 | 29.34% |
| Clutch Case | $1 | $2.49 | $1.10 | 31.52% |
| Horizon Case | $1 | $2.49 | $1.55 | 44.41% |
| Danger Zone Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.35 | 41.03% |
| Prisma Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.40 | 42.55% |
| CS20 Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.34 | 40.73% |
| Shattered Web Case | $5 | $2.49 | $3 | 40.05% |
| Prisma 2 Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.45 | 44.07% |
| Fracture Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.30 | 39.51% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | $5 | $2.49 | $3.10 | 41.38% |
| Snakebite Case | $0.50 | $2.49 | $1.36 | 45.48% |
| Operation Riptide Case | $5 | $2.49 | $2 | 26.70% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $1.50 | $2.49 | $1.24 | 31.08% |
| Recoil Case | $0.80 | $2.49 | $1.65 | 50.15% |
| Revolution Case | $2 | $2.49 | $2.05 | 45.66% |
